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A bettor earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from confidential information of the US operation.

Market Movement in Wagers

Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January surged in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been apprehended.

One account, which became a member recently and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436K from a starting bet of over $32,000.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before News Break

Platform data shows that participants assessed the probability of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday.

But these probabilities had increased to over 10% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the morning of the next day, suggesting a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the social media post was made.

"This particular bet has all the characteristics of a bet based on confidential knowledge," stated a financial reform advocate.

A small number of other individuals also profited large payouts from bets on the same outcome.

Political Attention Emerges

Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention.

Proposed legislation introduced on the start of the week aims to prohibit federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager.

The Prediction Market Landscape

Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with traders able to wager on everything from elections to politics.

This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the Biden administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency.

Insider trading is a crime in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market arena.

A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."